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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that proposals for a ceasefire agreement developed with American diplomats could be completed in a matter of days. Following this, U.S. representatives will submit the documentation to the Russian leadership.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Significant Progress, With Critical Obstacles Persist

Following extensive talks in Berlin, American negotiators reported on Monday that approximately “90%” of the disputed points between Russia and Ukraine had been settled. Although the outlook appears positive, the path to ending the war is not guaranteed, especially given the Russian absence from the current dialogue.

Early Tuesday morning, the Ukrainian president said that the US Congress was anticipated to vote on security guarantees and that a finalised set of agreements could be prepared “imminently.” Subsequently, the United States would hold consultations with Russian representatives, leading to summit-level talks as soon as this coming weekend.

Defense Assurances and Allied Backing

“The plan involves five key agreements. Some of them concern security guarantees: legally binding, that is, approved and approved by the US Congress,” the president commented to journalists. He stated that these guarantees would “reflect article 5” of the Nato alliance.

On Monday, US officials did not provide precise information regarding the probable makeup of the defense package or what would happen if Moscow sought to capture additional territory after a peace deal. Officials did confirm that the U.S. does not intend to place boots on the ground in Ukraine.

Heads of state from the UK, France, Germany and several additional European countries issued a joint statement that forces belonging to a “coalition of the willing” could “help with the rebuilding of Ukrainian military capabilities, in securing Ukrainian airspace, and in ensuring maritime security, including through conducting operations within Ukraine.”

They stopped short, however, of suggesting these actions would serve as assurances matching Nato’s article 5. In any case, there is little sign that Russia is anywhere close to accepting the kind of arrangement under discussion between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Moscow's Stance and Land Issue

On Tuesday, the Russian government stated it had not seen the details of the plans for security guarantees. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergey Ryabkov, asserted that the country would never accept troops from NATO member states being stationed in Ukraine “no matter what.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian negotiators and their American counterparts continues to be the territorial question. One proposal involves Ukraine relinquishing the parts of the Donbas region it currently controls, while Ukraine prefers to maintain the current front lines. “Talks continue on the land dispute. You know, it is one of the key issues. At this point, there is no consensus on it yet,” Zelenskyy remarked following the Berlin discussions.

American mediators, headed by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has proposed a compromise solution. Under this plan would see Ukraine pull back, but Russian troops would not move forward, with the demilitarised area established as “an open economic area.” Moscow has indicated it could use police and national guard units instead of the military in such an area, suggesting it would still seek to maintain authority there.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘special economic zone’ is not controlled by Russia. Neither de jure nor de facto will we recognise Donbas – its temporarily occupied part – as belonging to Russia. Categorically,” said Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Possible Scenarios

It is not clear how Moscow and Kyiv will resolve the territorial issue. The Ukrainian leader has previously suggested that a negotiated arrangement such as a special economic area could be theoretically possible if the citizens of Ukraine voted for it in a national vote. The critical stumbling block is expected to arise when the plans are put to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has shown no indication he is prepared to concede on his war aims.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will end up with exactly what we are encountering on our flight right now – turbulence,” commented Zelenskyy, recording the comments after his plane took off from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will apply sanctions pressure and provide us with more weapons if they reject the deal. In my view, that would be a fair request from Ukraine to the Americans,” he concluded.